Deployment Model: Interactive Simulation

This tool re-implements the Fund III deployment model as a live simulation. Each simulated fund makes the configured number of first-cheque investments, staggered across a four-year investment period. Entry valuations are drawn from stage-specific probability distributions researched for the internal model, with round sizes implying 25% dilution per financing. A fixed share of each stage's companies receives one or more follow-on rounds; follow-on valuations step up from the prior post-money by a sampled multiple (1.5x to 3.5x), arriving four to eight quarters after the previous round.

Each company's exit proceeds equal a sampled exit multiple applied to total invested capital, with roughly half of investments returning less than 1.0x in the base case and a small tail reaching 24x to 70x. Exit timing is drawn from a distribution spanning two to six years after initial investment, and never earlier than one quarter after the final financing round.

Net figures deduct management fees (charged on committed capital, stepping down after the investment period to a 1% floor) and apply a distribution waterfall per exit: return of invested capital, an 8% simple annual hurdle, GP catch-up, then the carry split. As with the underlying model, the waterfall is an approximation of fund distribution mechanics, not a reproduction of LPA terms.

None of this is a projection or a promise of performance. It is a way to explore how portfolio construction and outcome assumptions interact. Randomness is fixed per session so slider movements show real sensitivity; use "Re-roll randomness" to draw a fresh set of simulations.